Thursday, May 29, 2003

Software
Lots of news on the Open Source front. Microsoft loses a major deal to Linux in the German city of Munich. The President of India urged Indian IT professionals to favor Open Source over proprietary solutions such as MS Windows. This comes on top of actual or proposed adoption of Linux in Germany, China, Japan, Peru, and many other nations. Microsoft is attempting to counter this with steep discounts and alleged "slush fund". But the effectiveness of these tactics is being questioned.

The other side of this story is the continuing saga of SCO's suit against IBM and Linux. Now they're going after Linus Torvalds (maybe) and giving high-profile interviews. Novell has countered by threatening to sue SCO, as has a German Linux Group. SCO's share price has fallen despite positive earnings reports.

What does it all mean? My take is that Open Source Software (OSS) is winning both mindshare and market share, and SCO is desperately trying to capitalize on this either by extortion or by gaining some measure of control over Linux. I think this effort will fail and will somehow eventually, in some unexpected way, mark the tipping point for wide-spread acceptance of OSS. Why? Because SCO's claims will shown to be spurious. If and when that happens, it will set a precedent in favor of open source licensing, and the more conservative mainstream adopters will start moving towards OSS. I'll follow this over time to see how this prediction holds up.

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