A passing comment by Brad Delong caught my eye:
But there is an election coming up. If George W. Bush loses it, things may still be OK.
Yes, I thought, but what happens if he wins?
Let's rewind to 2001. After the election debacle fades, the Bush administration (with the help of a compliant Congress) proceeds to act as if they've been granted a mandate. This behavior is reinforced by 9/11 - if you're not with them, you're against them. Whatever else you can say about this administration, you have to admit they've been extremely successful at carrying out their policies.
Of course, unless you're a rabid partisan ideologue, you'd also have to admit that their record of accomplishment has been dismal at best and an utter failure at worst. As bad as the situation in Iraq looks now, the present state of affairs pales next to the long-term consequences of this misadventure. But that's only one of potential disasters confronting this administration. The torture scandal that began with Abu Ghraib is still breaking. That $8B no-bid Halliburton contract is receiving an increasing amount of scrutiny. The economy is still short about 1.3 million jobs since January 2001, and while corporate profits are rising, wages are not. The Valerie Plame affair is before a grand jury and the President has engaged personal counsel. We're still waiting to find out if Ahmad Chalabi is an Iranian spy.
You'd think that all that, on top of an increasingly unpopular war, would be enough to send GWB home. It's hard to believe that none of the potential crises facing his administration won't boil over.
But what if none of them do? What if Bush survives, and gets enough votes to win the election?
I'm afraid it will be taken as a complete vindication of the administration's policies. Any margin of victory, no matter how slim, will be treated as if it were a mandate, a la Reagan in `84 (or Nixon in `72). And that will be used to justify any or all of the following:
- More tax cuts for the rich
- More cuts in benefits for the poor
- Further curtailing of civil liberties (Patriot II, anyone?)
- Privatization of Social Security
It's hard to believe that they'll be able to indulge in any significant military adventurism post-Iraq, but you never know. The Neo-cons may find also redemption in a Bush victory, and if they do, they'll resume the drumbeat for regime change.
