Cynicism and Misdirection
There's been a great to-do about last week's proposal by GWB to amend the constitution to defend the sacred institution of marriage by limiting it to heterosexual couples.

Over the years, I've increasingly become something of a strict Constitutionalist, as well as believing in balanced budgets and State's rights. In fact, I've become a Republican. A Jefferson/Madison Republican, that is. So repeated soundings about amending the Constitution for the (non J/M)-Republican issue du jour (before it was balanced budgets, today it's gay marriages) strike me as a dangerous disrespect for one of the foundations of this nation.

But that reaction entirely misses the point. If you think about it, you realize that the administration has to know that there are at least 35-40 Democratic Senators who are likely to oppose the Amendment, and maybe as many as 5-10 Republicans. So they must realize there's virtually no chance it would pass.

Here's my take: the administration wouldn't want it to pass. They probably don't even want it to come up for a vote. They just want to float it out there and engineer/manipulate the resultant controversy. One big reason for floating it is to pander to the right-wing fundamentalists. Why? To tighten up support from that important constituency prior to the Convention and the election. But that's not who they're really aiming at. They're really aiming at the swing voters - the ones that elected Clinton in `92 and `96 and the ones they got just enough of in 2000. Most of those voters are reasonably tolerant folks who nonetheless are a little uncomfortable with the idea of same-sex marriages. If you're looking for a wedge to tip some more of those voters to your side then whipping up a controversy, standing foursquare for some sacred institution supposedly under threat, and subtly manipulating the other side into positions that you can cast as extreme is a proven winner.

It's a bit of risk - it could backfire - but it's a hell of a good strategy. Especially if you don't give a damn about any of these constituencies beyond capturing their votes.

Calling this cynical is like calling the sky blue. Almost all politicians will do whatever it takes to get elected. I've repeatedly said that you can't understand large-scale politics without understanding large-scale public relations. But no presidential administration has so completely sacrificed conviction and policy in favor of electioneering like this one since the Nixon White House.