The Future of Software Development...Boehm flames Agile/XP 15 years before they exist

[As a supplement to my earlier rant about Agile/XP]

...evolutionary development also has its difficulties. It is generally difficult to distinguish it from the old code-and-fix model, whose spaghetti code and lack of planning were the initial motivation for the waterfall model. It is also based on the often-unrealistic assumption that the user's operational system will be flexible enough to accomodate unplanned evolution paths...evolutionary development projects have come to grief by pursuing stages in the wrong order: evolving a lot of hard-to-change code before addressing long-range architectural and usage considerations.

Barry Boehm, "A Spiral Model of Software Development and Enhancement", IEEE Computer, vol.21, #5, May 1988